# Aaron Jones Sr. — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4199 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4199", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:23:36.653178+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "4199", "name": "Aaron Jones Sr.", "team": "MIN", "pos": "RB", "age": 31, "exp": 9, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 25.5, "ros_ppg": 8.88, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 8.8781, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 141, "adp": 116.1, "adp_pr": 40, "ly": { "pts": 104.7, "g": 12, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 132.0, "rushing_yards": 548.0, "rushing_tds": 2.0, "targets": 41.0, "receptions": 28.0, "receiving_yards": 199.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 28.0, "receiving_first_downs": 9.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 13.8, "ppg": 8.72, "ypc": 4.2, "ypt": 4.9, "ypr": 7.1, "catch_pct": 68.3, "total_yd": 747.0, "ypg": 62.2, "touches": 160.0, "first_downs": 37.0, "xfp": 121.4, "xfp_diff": -14.7, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 55.1, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 25.0, "rush_time_to_los": 2.89, "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.1, "rush_efficiency": 3.91, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.33, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.38, "rush_yac_att": 1.77, "rush_broken_tackles": 5.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.9 }, "ytd": { "pts": 67.3, "g": 6, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 105.0, "rushing_yards": 436.0, "rushing_tds": 2.0, "targets": 19.0, "receptions": 13.0, "receiving_yards": 72.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 20.0, "receiving_first_downs": 3.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 12.4, "ppg": 11.22, "ypc": 4.2, "ypt": 3.8, "ypr": 5.5, "catch_pct": 68.4, "total_yd": 508.0, "ypg": 84.7, "touches": 118.0, "first_downs": 23.0, "xfp": 77.3, "xfp_diff": -8.0, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 65.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 20.95, "rush_time_to_los": 2.7, "rush_ryoe_per_att": -0.6, "rush_efficiency": 3.78, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.38, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 3.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.69, "rush_yac_att": 1.47, "rush_broken_tackles": 4.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 15.8 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "4199", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:23:36.655693+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Minnesota watched Jones underperform his opportunity by 16.7 points last season, one of the largest shortfalls at the position, and the underlying rates say it wasn't bad luck. His 68.3 percent catch rate was the worst among qualified RB receivers, his 4.9 yards per target sat in the 13th percentile, and his rush yards over expected went negative at minus 0.12 per attempt. The decline shows up on both sides of his usage at once, which at 31 is the pattern that tends not to reverse. The market has him at pick 107 in half-PPR as RB36 while the consensus projects RB34, meaning there is no real discount, just a bet that a nine-year veteran rebounds toward a projection his 2025 rates don't support. He did still command a 78th-percentile target share and 55 percent of snaps across his 12 games, which keeps a floor under the volume as long as the role holds. Buying in here requires believing the role survives another year while the per-touch numbers keep sliding, and that combination has a short shelf life at this age.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Aaron Jones Sr. (rest) limited in practice Wednesday — Jones gets a rest day to begin the week. He remains a steady RB2 while Jordan Mason is sidelined. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-07T22:09:57+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-08T19:00:31.542595+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "rest day; limited in practice; steady rb2; jordan mason sidelined; gets a rest", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-08T19:19:36.187792+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```