# Mack Hollins — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4177 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4177", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:21:00.238429+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "4177", "name": "Mack Hollins", "team": "NE", "pos": "WR", "age": 33, "exp": 9, "injury": "IR", "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 4.14, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 4.135097822502995, "source": "sleeper_future+fallback", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [ 8 ], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 46, "adp": 697.0, "adp_pr": 473, "ly": { "pts": 90.4, "g": 14, "through_week": 16, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": 4.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 65.0, "receptions": 46.0, "receiving_yards": 550.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 29.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 15.9, "ppg": 6.46, "ypc": 4.0, "ypt": 8.5, "ypr": 12.0, "catch_pct": 70.8, "total_yd": 554.0, "ypg": 39.6, "touches": 47.0, "first_downs": 29.0, "xfp": 95.9, "xfp_diff": -5.5, "xfp_through_week": 16, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 67.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.73, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.29, "rec_adot": 12.96, "rec_air_share": 19.1, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.26, "rec_catch_pct": 70.77, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 28.4, "g": 4, "through_week": 4, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 20.0, "receptions": 15.0, "receiving_yards": 209.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 7.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 16.9, "ppg": 7.1, "ypc": null, "ypt": 10.4, "ypr": 13.9, "catch_pct": 75.0, "total_yd": 209.0, "ypg": 52.2, "touches": 15.0, "first_downs": 7.0, "xfp": 31.7, "xfp_diff": -3.3, "xfp_through_week": 4, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 64.5, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.66, "rec_avg_cushion": 6.03, "rec_adot": 14.91, "rec_air_share": 14.81, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.85, "rec_catch_pct": 75.0, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 5.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "4177", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:21:00.241193+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "current", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Hollins has the strangest projection drop in this final group. Last year he ranked WR61 in PPG, WR55 in targets, WR48 in receptions, WR57 in xFP, and carried an 85th-percentile catch rate. Projection WR118 says New England sees a much smaller role now, likely because he is fifth on the depth chart at age 32. The team total is average, and Week 1 is only 20.5 implied points. If camp reports push him back into regular routes, the 2025 workload says the projection is too harsh.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-20T03:01:08.390916+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Mack Hollins (calf) ruled out Sunday — Hollins will miss at least one game after leaving last week early. Romeo Doubs was the Patriots wide receiver who was able to take advantage last week following his absence. ", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T17:25:37+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-09T19:00:23.252053+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 1.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "calf ruled out; miss at least one game; ruled out sunday; romeo doubs took advantage", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": -1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-09T19:02:05.274655+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": { "status": "ir", "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" }, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "ir", "exp_miss_next6": 4.060832407848115, "as_of": "2026-10-31", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```