{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4035","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:21:16.315392+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"4035","name":"Alvin Kamara","team":"NO","pos":"RB","age":31,"exp":9,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":2.18,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":2.1794444444444445,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":94,"adp":156.2,"adp_pr":50,"ly":{"pts":84.2,"g":11,"through_week":12,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":131.0,"rushing_yards":471.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":39.0,"receptions":33.0,"receiving_yards":186.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":21.0,"receiving_first_downs":7.0,"fumbles_lost":2.0,"tgt_share":10.5,"ppg":7.65,"ypc":3.6,"ypt":4.8,"ypr":5.6,"catch_pct":84.6,"total_yd":657.0,"ypg":59.7,"touches":164.0,"first_downs":28.0,"xfp":118.5,"xfp_diff":-30.3,"xfp_through_week":12,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":63.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":11.45,"rush_time_to_los":2.54,"rush_ryoe_per_att":-0.77,"rush_efficiency":4.15,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.29,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.15,"rush_yac_att":1.44,"rush_broken_tackles":7.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":5.1},"ytd":{"pts":54.8,"g":6,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":41.0,"rushing_yards":125.0,"rushing_tds":2.0,"targets":27.0,"receptions":22.0,"receiving_yards":133.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":8.0,"receiving_first_downs":5.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":12.8,"ppg":9.13,"ypc":3.0,"ypt":4.9,"ypr":6.0,"catch_pct":81.5,"total_yd":258.0,"ypg":43.0,"touches":63.0,"first_downs":13.0,"xfp":53.9,"xfp_diff":0.9,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":34.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":7.32,"rush_time_to_los":2.58,"rush_ryoe_per_att":-1.18,"rush_efficiency":4.03,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.33,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":3.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":3.7}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"4035","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:21:16.319359+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Every rushing indicator in Kamara's 2025 charting points the same direction: the lowest stacked-box rate any qualified back saw, the quickest average trip to the line of scrimmage, the lowest rushes-over-expected rate, minus-0.73 rush yards over expected per attempt, and 1.44 yards after contact on 3.6 a carry. Defenses invited him to run and he couldn't beat the math. He also landed 34 points under his expected total, the second-worst gap measured, so some rebound is baked into any projection. New Orleans then added Travis Etienne, and the beat reporting slots Kamara behind him as a pass-catching specialist, a role that still holds value at this price given his 33 catches in 11 games and an 85th-percentile snap share. Consensus projects 106.5 points, RB45, against a half-PPR market price of RB53, a gap that exists because drafters are pricing the age-30 cliff and the demotion while the projection assumes the reception role survives. I lean toward the market on this one. Once the rushing skill is this far gone the catches are the whole act, and pass-down roles for 30-year-old backs get taken away faster than projections update.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Alvin Kamara (back) listed questionable Sunday  — Kamara was able to get in another practice on Friday. He should be on the favorable side of questionable heading into Sunday. ","latest_at":"2026-10-09T18:20:05+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-10T19:00:24.170294+00:00","llm_sentiment":0,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":0.5,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"questionable sunday; got in practice; favorable side; back listed","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-10T19:22:06.621601+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-11","source":"curves-v1"}}}