{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/4017","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:00.023335+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"4017","name":"Deshaun Watson","team":"CLE","pos":"QB","age":31,"exp":9,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":11.29,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":11.28584893321347,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,12],"missing_weeks":[13,14,15,16,17],"remaining_games":9},"proj":128,"adp":655.5,"adp_pr":154,"ly":null,"adv":null,"ytd":{"pts":104.8,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":1482.0,"passing_tds":7.0,"interceptions":3.0,"carries":48.0,"rushing_yards":215.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":69.0,"rushing_first_downs":14.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":2.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":14.97,"ypc":4.5,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":1697.0,"ypg":242.4,"touches":48.0,"first_downs":14.0,"xfp":25.1,"xfp_diff":2.4,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":99.9,"pass_time_to_throw":2.85,"pass_adot":7.61,"pass_aggressiveness":14.29,"pass_cpoe":-4.46,"pass_air_to_sticks":-1.75,"pass_rating":90.62,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":2.0,"pass_pressured_pct":25.4,"pass_bad_throw_pct":17.3,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"4017","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:00.030704+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"unavailable","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Watson enters camp with a reported slight edge for the Browns job, though the same June reporting noted he lacked consistency in OTAs while Sanders closed the gap, and Cleveland plans to name its starter early. With no 2025 production on record there's no recent charting to argue from, just a 30-year-old entering his tenth season attached to one of the league's bleakest offensive environments by early lines, an 18.4 average implied total that ranks 31st. The consensus projection is more generous than you'd expect, roughly 136 points and QB32, with nearly 200 rushing yards baked in, while superflex drafters let him fall to QB44 around pick 260. Cheap relative to projection is a rare thing at quarterback this deep in drafts, so he qualifies as a value on paper, though that projection assumes he holds off Sanders and stays on the field, and neither assumption has any recent evidence behind it.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Deshaun Watson 'anticipated' to start Week 2 for Browns — Not ideal. It was an ugly showing again for the Browns offense led by Watson on Sunday. The entire Browns offense remains downgraded for now for fantasy managers. ","latest_at":"2026-09-14T18:19:36+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-15T15:39:16.359257+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"anticipated to start; not ideal; ugly showing; offense remains downgraded","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":-1,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-15T15:41:12.787339+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":null}}