{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/2307","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:29:00.799566+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"2307","name":"Marcus Mariota","team":"WAS","pos":"QB","age":33,"exp":11,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":10.58,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":10.584631951953913,"source":"fallback","captured_at":null,"covered_weeks":[],"missing_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"remaining_games":10},"proj":17,"adp":507.5,"adp_pr":88,"ly":{"pts":123.5,"g":10,"through_week":16,"passing_yards":1695.0,"passing_tds":10.0,"interceptions":7.0,"carries":50.0,"rushing_yards":297.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":80.0,"rushing_first_downs":12.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":3.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":12.35,"ypc":5.9,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":1992.0,"ypg":199.2,"touches":50.0,"first_downs":12.0,"xfp":31.3,"xfp_diff":null,"xfp_through_week":15,"xfp_coverage":"partial"},"adv":{"snap_pct":74.5,"pass_time_to_throw":2.85,"pass_adot":10.17,"pass_aggressiveness":19.82,"pass_cpoe":3.48,"pass_air_to_sticks":1.19,"pass_rating":86.06,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":5.3,"rush_yac_att":0.64,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":21.6,"pass_bad_throw_pct":14.9,"rec_drop_pct":null},"ytd":{"pts":34.5,"g":3,"through_week":4,"passing_yards":340.0,"passing_tds":4.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":7.0,"rushing_yards":49.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":18.0,"rushing_first_downs":3.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":11.5,"ypc":7.0,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":389.0,"ypg":129.7,"touches":7.0,"first_downs":3.0,"xfp":2.8,"xfp_diff":2.1,"xfp_through_week":4,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":53.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"2307","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:29:00.814318+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Mariota threw deeper than any qualified quarterback last season, ranking first in aDOT at 10.18, first in aggressiveness into tight windows, and first at 1.19 air yards beyond the sticks, and a 75th percentile CPOE says the deep shots were landing more often than not. The rushing has its own signature, 29.7 yards a game at 5.9 a carry, built on a 90th percentile 5.3 yards before contact per attempt with almost nothing after contact, a scrambler picking his moments into open grass rather than running through anybody. All of it added up to 13.1 points per game across ten 2025 appearances, genuine production for a fill-in. The catch is that Washington lists him second on the depth chart, his snap share even in the games he appeared ranked at the very bottom of the position, and the consensus projection allows him 18 points for the whole season. In 2QB leagues he goes around pick 276, about right for one of the league's most fantasy-friendly insurance policies. There's nothing to draft in 1QB formats, just a name worth moving on quickly the moment the starter ahead of him misses practice.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Marcus Mariota (MCL) without timetable to return — Mariota is week-to-week with an MCL sprain. ","latest_at":"2026-10-05T23:34:38+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-06T19:00:45.612292+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":2.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"without timetable; week-to-week; mcl sprain","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-06T19:16:26.477120+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.21601620415637,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}