{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/2133","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:12.339992+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"2133","name":"Davante Adams","team":"LAR","pos":"WR","age":33,"exp":12,"injury":"IR","rookie":false,"value":45.9,"ros_ppg":12.63,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":12.625096464829268,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8,9,10],"remaining_games":9},"proj":188,"adp":56.3,"adp_pr":24,"ly":{"pts":192.9,"g":14,"through_week":15,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":114.0,"receptions":60.0,"receiving_yards":789.0,"receiving_tds":14.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":51.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":24.8,"ppg":13.78,"ypc":null,"ypt":6.9,"ypr":13.2,"catch_pct":52.6,"total_yd":789.0,"ypg":56.4,"touches":60.0,"first_downs":51.0,"xfp":212.0,"xfp_diff":-19.1,"xfp_through_week":15,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":71.4,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.12,"rec_avg_cushion":5.17,"rec_adot":13.22,"rec_air_share":28.34,"rec_yac_above_exp":-0.55,"rec_catch_pct":52.63,"rec_drops":7.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":6.1},"ytd":{"pts":87.0,"g":6,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":49.0,"receptions":30.0,"receiving_yards":480.0,"receiving_tds":4.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":21.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":20.2,"ppg":14.5,"ypc":null,"ypt":9.8,"ypr":16.0,"catch_pct":61.2,"total_yd":480.0,"ypg":80.0,"touches":30.0,"first_downs":21.0,"xfp":78.6,"xfp_diff":8.4,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":74.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.24,"rec_avg_cushion":5.81,"rec_adot":14.77,"rec_air_share":33.68,"rec_yac_above_exp":1.3,"rec_catch_pct":61.22,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.1}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"2133","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:12.467129+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"The charting and the usage describe two different players. Adams at 33 posted some of the ugliest athletic indicators at the position in 2025: 2.17 yards of separation (7th percentile), a 52.6 percent catch rate (8th), yards after catch over expected in the 6th percentile, and corners pressing him with among the tightest cushions of any qualified receiver. That same season he drew 114 targets, built the sixth-highest expected-points total among wideouts at 212, and led all wideouts with 14 receiving touchdowns while averaging 13.8 points per game, even though he finished 19 points under what the usage predicted. The Rams carry the third-best implied totals into 2026, and the consensus haircuts the touchdowns to 10.2 yet still lands at 188 points, WR18. Half-PPR rooms let him go WR24 around pick 55, six spots under that projection, presumably because the age cliff feels imminent every year until it happens. The bet at this price is narrow and clear, that the target role survives one more season even though the route-winning already hasn't, and given the offense and the red-zone monopoly, WR24 underprices the floor.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Davante Adams brings in two TD passes in Week 5 — Adams found the end zone twice in the high-scoring loss on Monday night. He kicked off the scoring for LA with a four-yard grab in the second quarter and later came back to add a five-yard catch for a score. Adams now has 27 catches for 441 yards and four touchdowns through five games for the Rams. He will be a solid WR2 in Week 6 vs. the Cardinals.","latest_at":"2026-10-13T10:05:55+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"two td passes; solid wr2; four-yard grab; five-yard catch; 27 catches","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:11:42.052905+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}