# Kyle Williams — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12547 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12547", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:31:09.824602+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "12547", "name": "Kyle Williams", "team": "NE", "pos": "WR", "age": 23, "exp": 1, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 2.96, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 2.961888888888889, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 42, "adp": 683.8, "adp_pr": 424, "ly": { "pts": 44.2, "g": 14, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 2.0, "rushing_yards": 3.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 21.0, "receptions": 10.0, "receiving_yards": 209.0, "receiving_tds": 3.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 7.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 5.1, "ppg": 3.16, "ypc": 1.5, "ypt": 10.0, "ypr": 20.9, "catch_pct": 47.6, "total_yd": 212.0, "ypg": 15.1, "touches": 12.0, "first_downs": 7.0, "xfp": 34.1, "xfp_diff": 10.1, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 30.8, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 9.5 }, "ytd": { "pts": 23.7, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 12.0, "receptions": 6.0, "receiving_yards": 147.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 5.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 5.7, "ppg": 3.39, "ypc": null, "ypt": 12.2, "ypr": 24.5, "catch_pct": 50.0, "total_yd": 147.0, "ypg": 21.0, "touches": 6.0, "first_downs": 5.0, "xfp": 18.5, "xfp_diff": 5.2, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 29.9, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "12547", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:31:09.827474+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Between the price and the projection there's a canyon with Kyle Williams. The market takes him around WR82 in half-PPR drafts near pick 212, while the consensus projects 19 points and WR142, one of the widest gaps you'll find at the position. His rookie year explains the projection side: 21 targets across 14 games in New England, a snap share in the 10th percentile, a 4.4 percent target share, and 3.2 points a game propped up by three touchdowns on ten catches. He currently sits sixth on the depth chart. What the market is buying is the pedigree of a 23-year-old second-year receiver and the chance that camp rewrites the pecking order, because nothing in his 2025 usage supports a pick this early, and New England's mid-pack implied totals don't strengthen the environment argument either. This is a name being drafted roughly 60 spots ahead of any projection support, which is the kind of gap that should make you the one selling.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Kyle Williams held to one catch Sunday — The young wideout got on the field on Sunday and was able to haul in one 34-yard pass against the Jaguars, but he wasn't able to do anything else in the team's blowout loss. It's nice to see him actually on the field for New England, but he doesn't project to have any fantasy value for the foreseeable future.", "latest_at": "2026-09-28T16:53:53+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-29T19:00:23.129722+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "held to one catch; one 34-yard pass; no fantasy value; actually on the field", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-29T19:19:39.264129+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```