{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12545","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:21:56.068767+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"12545","name":"Tyler Shough","team":"NO","pos":"QB","age":27,"exp":1,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":16.9,"ros_ppg":16.09,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":16.092244444444447,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":274,"adp":188.7,"adp_pr":22,"ly":{"pts":156.0,"g":11,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":2384.0,"passing_tds":10.0,"interceptions":6.0,"carries":45.0,"rushing_yards":186.0,"rushing_tds":3.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":107.0,"rushing_first_downs":12.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":2.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":14.18,"ypc":4.1,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":2570.0,"ypg":233.6,"touches":45.0,"first_downs":12.0,"xfp":33.9,"xfp_diff":2.7,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":83.5,"pass_time_to_throw":2.68,"pass_adot":8.33,"pass_aggressiveness":12.84,"pass_cpoe":1.37,"pass_air_to_sticks":-0.65,"pass_rating":91.33,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":2.0,"pass_pressured_pct":18.3,"pass_bad_throw_pct":22.7,"rec_drop_pct":null},"ytd":{"pts":125.9,"g":7,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":1721.0,"passing_tds":13.0,"interceptions":6.0,"carries":24.0,"rushing_yards":111.0,"rushing_tds":2.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":90.0,"rushing_first_downs":10.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":3.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":17.99,"ypc":4.6,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":1832.0,"ypg":261.7,"touches":24.0,"first_downs":10.0,"xfp":25.9,"xfp_diff":-2.8,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":99.6,"pass_time_to_throw":2.7,"pass_adot":7.26,"pass_aggressiveness":16.12,"pass_cpoe":0.65,"pass_air_to_sticks":-1.93,"pass_rating":90.93,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":2.0,"pass_pressured_pct":20.2,"pass_bad_throw_pct":16.2,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"12545","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:21:56.072451+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"The consensus sees a second-year leap coming here, 3,977 passing yards and four rushing scores worth 286 points and QB17, and the market at QB18 near pick 139 has largely bought in. His rookie charting makes the leap a harder sell. Shough's 22.7% bad-throw rate was third worst among charted quarterbacks even though his CPOE graded out average, a split that usually means the completions came on quick, easy throws while the misses were genuine, and the rest of the profile fits that reading, with a bottom-eighth release time and 12th-percentile aggressiveness. He also played just 83.5% of the Saints' offensive snaps, a fifth-percentile share among quarterbacks. The encouraging pieces are a 17.1-point median week when he was producing and three rushing touchdowns in eleven games, the lever his projection quietly leans on. New Orleans sits 23rd in implied team totals, so the offense will not be papering over whatever growth he still has to show.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Tyler Shough playing through hand injury — Saints head coach Kellen Moore was asked directly whether Shough's hand is broken. \"It got banged two weeks ago and he's just wearing some protective layers there,\" he said. It doesn't appear Shough is in danger of missing any time, but he'll need to be monitored on the injury report this week. ","latest_at":"2026-10-12T18:56:57+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-13T19:00:45.210835+00:00","llm_sentiment":0,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":0.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"hand injury; protective layers; danger of missing; injury report; banged two weeks","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:18:14.884617+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-08","source":"curves-v1"}}}