{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12533","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:29:19.879835+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"12533","name":"Jacory Croskey-Merritt","team":"WAS","pos":"RB","age":25,"exp":1,"injury":"IR","rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":5.72,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":5.7161399914581965,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8],"remaining_games":10},"proj":141,"adp":98.3,"adp_pr":38,"ly":{"pts":135.8,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":175.0,"rushing_yards":805.0,"rushing_tds":8.0,"targets":13.0,"receptions":9.0,"receiving_yards":68.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":41.0,"receiving_first_downs":3.0,"fumbles_lost":2.0,"tgt_share":3.0,"ppg":7.99,"ypc":4.6,"ypt":5.2,"ypr":7.6,"catch_pct":69.2,"total_yd":873.0,"ypg":51.4,"touches":184.0,"first_downs":44.0,"xfp":136.3,"xfp_diff":3.5,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":39.5,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":28.0,"rush_time_to_los":2.83,"rush_ryoe_per_att":0.8,"rush_efficiency":3.49,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.38,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.53,"rush_yac_att":2.07,"rush_broken_tackles":13.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0},"ytd":{"pts":42.4,"g":5,"through_week":5,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":67.0,"rushing_yards":239.0,"rushing_tds":2.0,"targets":7.0,"receptions":5.0,"receiving_yards":40.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":15.0,"receiving_first_downs":1.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":4.6,"ppg":8.48,"ypc":3.6,"ypt":5.7,"ypr":8.0,"catch_pct":71.4,"total_yd":279.0,"ypg":55.8,"touches":72.0,"first_downs":16.0,"xfp":47.2,"xfp_diff":-4.8,"xfp_through_week":5,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":44.6,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":5.97,"rush_time_to_los":2.75,"rush_ryoe_per_att":-0.45,"rush_efficiency":4.01,"rush_pct_over_expected":0.24,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":2.18,"rush_yac_att":1.39,"rush_broken_tackles":1.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"12533","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:29:19.882699+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"The weekly shape of Croskey-Merritt's season tells you more than the total. His 8.0 points per game came with a median week of 4.6, meaning the typical outing was a dud and the season leaned hard on spikes, with his top two weeks carrying 36 percent of his scoring. The underlying profile explains it: 8 rushing touchdowns (86th percentile) on 175 carries with a healthy 0.79 rush yards over expected per attempt, but only 13 targets all year and two lost fumbles, a 90th-percentile figure the coaching staff surely noticed. Offseason reporting expects him to stay in a committee even while listed first on the depth chart, and the consensus projection agrees with that framing, giving him 182 carries, 7.5 touchdowns, and RB38 points on almost no receiving work. At pick 108 in half-PPR (RB37) the market is paying exactly projection for the spikiest possible version of that projection. He suits managers who can stomach the 1.7-point weeks between the 26-point ones, and will frustrate anyone who needs the median week to count.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin) limited again Thursday — The young running back has been limited at both of Washington's practices to start the week. He's still day-to-day with a groin issue, but it looks like he's trending towards playing through it this week. However, fantasy managers shouldn't have high expectations for him even if he's fully healthy for this matchup against the Giants.","latest_at":"2026-10-08T20:37:09+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-09T09:00:23.363460+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":0.5,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"day to day; limited again; trending towards playing; high expectations; groin issue","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-09T09:06:14.567735+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}