# Tetairoa McMillan — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12526 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12526", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:25:10.619956+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "12526", "name": "Tetairoa McMillan", "team": "CAR", "pos": "WR", "age": 23, "exp": 1, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 32.5, "ros_ppg": 11.14, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 11.141333333333334, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 193, "adp": 36.0, "adp_pr": 15, "ly": { "pts": 178.4, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 122.0, "receptions": 70.0, "receiving_yards": 1014.0, "receiving_tds": 7.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 55.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 25.4, "ppg": 10.49, "ypc": null, "ypt": 8.3, "ypr": 14.5, "catch_pct": 57.4, "total_yd": 1014.0, "ypg": 59.6, "touches": 70.0, "first_downs": 55.0, "xfp": 180.1, "xfp_diff": -1.7, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 87.2, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.69, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.73, "rec_adot": 12.46, "rec_air_share": 44.51, "rec_yac_above_exp": 0.05, "rec_catch_pct": 57.38, "rec_drops": 8.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 6.6 }, "ytd": { "pts": 87.9, "g": 7, "through_week": 8, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 65.0, "receptions": 42.0, "receiving_yards": 569.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 27.0, "fumbles_lost": 1.0, "tgt_share": 26.4, "ppg": 12.56, "ypc": null, "ypt": 8.8, "ypr": 13.5, "catch_pct": 64.6, "total_yd": 569.0, "ypg": 81.3, "touches": 42.0, "first_downs": 27.0, "xfp": 94.9, "xfp_diff": -5.0, "xfp_through_week": 8, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 82.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 2.77, "rec_avg_cushion": 5.32, "rec_adot": 10.78, "rec_air_share": 32.94, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.35, "rec_catch_pct": 64.62, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 3.1 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "12526", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:25:10.622913+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Carolina handed McMillan a full alpha role as a rookie, and the usage is the whole argument at his price. He played 87 percent of the snaps, drew a 25.4 percent target share (92nd percentile), and commanded a 44.5 percent air-yards share that ranked second among all qualifiers, an extreme downfield burden for a 23-year-old. Results were lumpier than the role: a 57.4 percent catch rate in the bottom quarter, eight drops at a 6.6 percent rate, little after-catch creation, and a 70-catch, 1,014-yard line that almost exactly matched his expected points. That last part matters because it means the production was real opportunity rather than variance, and catch rate on a deep-target diet is precisely the thing that tends to improve in year two. His 37.2 ADP at WR14 runs three spots ahead of the 188-point projection, Vegas ranks Carolina 24th by implied totals, and he carries a questionable designation into camp. The wager is the classic second-year one, that a near-league-leading air-yards share ages better than a rookie catch rate, and the market has already paid a modest premium for it.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Tetairoa McMillan hauls in five receptions in Week 1 loss — McMillan made the most of his sizeable volume in the Carolina passing attack, finishing second in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in the loss. The wideout remains one of the more dynamic pass-catching options in the Carolina offense moving forward, with a Week 2 contest against the Atlanta Falcons up next.", "latest_at": "2026-09-14T14:40:06+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-15T10:00:03.130918+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "five receptions; sizeable volume; second in targets; dynamic pass-catching options; week 2 contest", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-15T10:16:49.105194+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": null, "as_of": "2026-07-18", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```