{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12514","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:30:00.754965+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"12514","name":"Emeka Egbuka","team":"TB","pos":"WR","age":24,"exp":1,"injury":"Out","rookie":false,"value":17.6,"ros_ppg":9.49,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":9.486858959010931,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8],"remaining_games":9},"proj":191,"adp":41.2,"adp_pr":18,"ly":{"pts":162.2,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":2.0,"rushing_yards":9.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":127.0,"receptions":63.0,"receiving_yards":938.0,"receiving_tds":6.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":34.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":23.5,"ppg":9.54,"ypc":4.5,"ypt":7.4,"ypr":14.9,"catch_pct":49.6,"total_yd":947.0,"ypg":55.7,"touches":65.0,"first_downs":34.0,"xfp":194.9,"xfp_diff":-32.7,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":77.6,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.59,"rec_avg_cushion":6.24,"rec_adot":12.16,"rec_air_share":35.51,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.8,"rec_catch_pct":49.61,"rec_drops":9.0,"rec_broken_tackles":1.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":7.1},"ytd":{"pts":57.1,"g":6,"through_week":6,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":2.0,"rushing_yards":11.0,"rushing_tds":1.0,"targets":49.0,"receptions":28.0,"receiving_yards":240.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":1.0,"receiving_first_downs":11.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":26.2,"ppg":9.52,"ypc":5.5,"ypt":4.9,"ypr":8.6,"catch_pct":57.1,"total_yd":251.0,"ypg":41.8,"touches":30.0,"first_downs":12.0,"xfp":73.6,"xfp_diff":-16.5,"xfp_through_week":6,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":85.8,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":3.02,"rec_avg_cushion":7.36,"rec_adot":9.98,"rec_air_share":33.71,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.11,"rec_catch_pct":57.14,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":2.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"12514","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:30:00.784181+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Few receivers left more points on the field last season. Egbuka's rookie usage was elite on both axes, 127 targets at a 23.5 percent share with a 35.5 percent air-yards share (89th percentile), a volume-plus-depth combination that normally supports a top-ten season. Expected points from that workload ranked ninth among all wideouts at 195, and he actually scored 162, a 33-point shortfall near the very bottom of the position. The conversion trouble was real rather than statistical: a 49.6 percent catch rate in the 8th percentile and nine drops, among the most at the position. Some of that is the tax on a 12.2-yard average depth of target, and his 14.9 yards per catch (86th percentile) shows the wins were big when they landed. Gaps this size tend to close, usually through ordinary regression plus a year-two step, and his role requires no change at all for it to happen. The consensus projection already prices the rebound at WR16 with 191 points, while standard-format drafters let him go WR24, which makes him one of the cleaner value gaps in this part of the draft.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Emeka Egbuka (toe) cleared for Week 1 — Emeka Egbuka (toe) is cleared to play in Week 1 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Cincinnati Bengals according to Greg Auman.","latest_at":"2026-09-11T17:15:32+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-13T10:00:02.666547+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"cleared for week 1; toe injury; cleared to play; week 1","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-09-13T10:06:29.897532+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"out","exp_miss_next6":3.440915580938783,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}