# Gunnar Helm — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12502 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12502", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:30:32.888333+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "12502", "name": "Gunnar Helm", "team": "TEN", "pos": "TE", "age": 24, "exp": 1, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 4.47, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 4.473111111111113, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 87, "adp": 244.1, "adp_pr": 29, "ly": { "pts": 69.7, "g": 16, "through_week": 17, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 55.0, "receptions": 44.0, "receiving_yards": 357.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 17.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 11.1, "ppg": 4.36, "ypc": null, "ypt": 6.5, "ypr": 8.1, "catch_pct": 80.0, "total_yd": 357.0, "ypg": 22.3, "touches": 44.0, "first_downs": 17.0, "xfp": 72.6, "xfp_diff": -2.9, "xfp_through_week": 17, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 52.6, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": 3.5, "rec_avg_cushion": 4.81, "rec_adot": 5.39, "rec_air_share": 7.63, "rec_yac_above_exp": -0.71, "rec_catch_pct": 80.0, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 3.6 }, "ytd": { "pts": 14.4, "g": 6, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 0.0, "rushing_yards": 0.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 17.0, "receptions": 12.0, "receiving_yards": 84.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 5.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 9.8, "ppg": 2.4, "ypc": null, "ypt": 4.9, "ypr": 7.0, "catch_pct": 70.6, "total_yd": 84.0, "ypg": 14.0, "touches": 12.0, "first_downs": 5.0, "xfp": 22.8, "xfp_diff": -8.4, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 77.7, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": null, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "12502", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:30:32.893393+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Tennessee gave Gunnar Helm 55 targets as a rookie and he caught 80 percent of them, a 91st-percentile catch rate, which sounds like the start of a case until you look at what the catches were. His 8.1 yards per reception ranked next to last among qualified tight ends, defenses sat on him with some of the tightest cushions at the position, and his minus-0.81 YAC over expected ranked 32nd of 33, so the throws were short and the tackles came immediately. Add a 52.6 percent snap share and an offense Vegas ranks 27th by implied total, and the combination generates almost nothing for fantasy. The 2026 consensus grants a modest step to 49 catches and 87 points, TE31, and the market's 161 half-PPR ADP, TE28, is roughly the same shrug. Second-year jumps happen at this position, and 3.4 targets a game at age 23 is enough to justify a watch-list spot, but nothing in the rookie charting, not the after-catch numbers, not the depth of target, showed an explosive trait to project forward.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Gunnar Helm (knee) downgraded to limited Thursday — Helm seems to have suffered a knee injury of some kind, as he was downgraded to a limited participant on Thursday because of it. Daniel Bellinger will see more work if Helm is unable to suit up against the Texans this week.", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T03:31:58+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-09T09:00:23.363460+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": -1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 0.5, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "downgraded to limited; knee injury; unable to suit up; see more work; limited participant", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": -1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-09T09:25:26.764755+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```