# Ollie Gordon II — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12495 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12495", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:20:31.898517+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "12495", "name": "Ollie Gordon II", "team": "MIA", "pos": "RB", "age": 22, "exp": 1, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 59.9, "ros_ppg": 12.32, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 12.318099999999998, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 24, "adp": 665.9, "adp_pr": 249, "ly": { "pts": 50.6, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 70.0, "rushing_yards": 199.0, "rushing_tds": 3.0, "targets": 9.0, "receptions": 7.0, "receiving_yards": 32.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 21.0, "receiving_first_downs": 1.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 1.9, "ppg": 2.98, "ypc": 2.8, "ypt": 3.6, "ypr": 4.6, "catch_pct": 77.8, "total_yd": 231.0, "ypg": 13.6, "touches": 77.0, "first_downs": 22.0, "xfp": 62.9, "xfp_diff": -12.3, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 22.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 2.0, "rush_ybc_att": 1.16, "rush_yac_att": 1.69, "rush_broken_tackles": 6.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 11.1 }, "ytd": { "pts": 62.3, "g": 5, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 72.0, "rushing_yards": 339.0, "rushing_tds": 4.0, "targets": 8.0, "receptions": 6.0, "receiving_yards": 14.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 20.0, "receiving_first_downs": 1.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 6.6, "ppg": 12.46, "ypc": 4.7, "ypt": 1.8, "ypr": 2.3, "catch_pct": 75.0, "total_yd": 353.0, "ypg": 70.6, "touches": 78.0, "first_downs": 21.0, "xfp": 67.7, "xfp_diff": -5.4, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 52.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": 26.39, "rush_time_to_los": 2.48, "rush_ryoe_per_att": 0.67, "rush_efficiency": 3.18, "rush_pct_over_expected": 0.39, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.79, "rush_yac_att": 1.92, "rush_broken_tackles": 6.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "12495", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:20:31.905849+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Seventeen games of Ollie Gordon's rookie season produced some of the ugliest efficiency numbers at the position. He averaged 2.8 yards per carry, 60th of 61 qualifiers, and the split shows a player failed by his blocking who didn't rescue much himself: 1.16 yards before contact, also 60th of 61, with 1.69 after contact sitting in the 27th percentile. Unlike backfield mate Jaylen Wright, who turned the same bad Miami blocking into a top-five after-contact number, Gordon added little once the ball was in his hands, and he finished 12.3 half-PPR points under what his usage predicted, one of the larger shortfalls among qualified backs. At pick 234, with a consensus projection of RB81 and about 32 points, the market has absorbed all of this. The case that keeps him rosterable anyway is that he answered the bell all 17 weeks and still found the end zone four times on 77 touches, which in a Dolphins offense implied at just 19.2 points a game is more touchdown residue than the environment usually allows.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Ollie Gordon II: All RBs on Dolphins 'are going to have their roles' — Gordon remains the most likely player to lead the backfield, but Jaylen Wright will figure to have a role when he is healthy. Gordon can be viewed as a borderline RB2 for now. ", "latest_at": "2026-09-28T22:01:52+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-30T09:00:23.381086+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "most likely player; lead the backfield; borderline rb2; all rbs have roles; jaylen wright healthy", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-30T09:11:46.631824+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": 1.6780349575271793, "as_of": "2026-10-14", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```