{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12487","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:21:55.701110+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"12487","name":"Terrance Ferguson","team":"LAR","pos":"TE","age":23,"exp":1,"injury":"IR","rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":4.04,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":4.037537726460567,"source":"sleeper_future+fallback","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[9,10,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[8],"remaining_games":9},"proj":103,"adp":206.1,"adp_pr":24,"ly":{"pts":46.6,"g":11,"through_week":17,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":1.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":25.0,"receptions":11.0,"receiving_yards":231.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":9.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":6.5,"ppg":4.24,"ypc":0.0,"ypt":9.2,"ypr":21.0,"catch_pct":44.0,"total_yd":231.0,"ypg":21.0,"touches":12.0,"first_downs":9.0,"xfp":46.3,"xfp_diff":0.3,"xfp_through_week":17,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":36.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0},"ytd":{"pts":15.8,"g":3,"through_week":3,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":12.0,"receptions":7.0,"receiving_yards":63.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":3.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":11.3,"ppg":5.27,"ypc":null,"ypt":5.2,"ypr":9.0,"catch_pct":58.3,"total_yd":63.0,"ypg":21.0,"touches":7.0,"first_downs":3.0,"xfp":16.7,"xfp_diff":-0.9,"xfp_through_week":3,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":45.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":16.7}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"12487","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:21:55.703840+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Los Angeles' offense is doing most of the lifting in Terrance Ferguson's price. The Rams carry the third-highest average implied total on the early 2026 board at 26.4 points, and drafters buy the second-year tight end attached to it at a 153 half-PPR ADP, TE24, over a rookie season of 11 catches on 25 targets for 231 yards. The rate stats are what an 11-catch sample does to rate stats, 21 yards a catch against a 44 percent catch rate, and he played too little to qualify for any of the positional charting, with a 36.7 percent snap share down in the 14th percentile. Three of the eleven catches did go for touchdowns, so the ball found him in valuable spots on the occasions it found him at all. The consensus lands at TE28 with 95 points, mildly below his cost, which means the thirteenth-round pick is buying offensive environment and pedigree, on faith, ahead of any demonstrated role. As a final-round dart the same thesis would be reasonable, and two rounds earlier it crowds out players who already have jobs.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Terrance Ferguson (ankle) placed on IR — Ferguson went down with the injury last Sunday. He will now miss at least the next four games. ","latest_at":"2026-10-02T21:10:05+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-04T09:00:46.266132+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":4.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"placed on ir; miss at least; ankle injury; next four games; went down","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-04T09:13:39.679037+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"ir","exp_miss_next6":4.060832407848115,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}