# Tez Johnson — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12485 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12485", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:31.724848+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "12485", "name": "Tez Johnson", "team": "TB", "pos": "WR", "age": 24, "exp": 1, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 3.58, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 3.584111111111111, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 18, "adp": 673.8, "adp_pr": 383, "ly": { "pts": 78.4, "g": 15, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 7.0, "rushing_yards": 22.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 44.0, "receptions": 28.0, "receiving_yards": 322.0, "receiving_tds": 5.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 0.0, "receiving_first_downs": 16.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 9.2, "ppg": 5.23, "ypc": 3.1, "ypt": 7.3, "ypr": 11.5, "catch_pct": 63.6, "total_yd": 344.0, "ypg": 22.9, "touches": 35.0, "first_downs": 16.0, "xfp": 70.6, "xfp_diff": 7.8, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 47.1, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.5 }, "ytd": { "pts": 30.3, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 3.0, "rushing_yards": 20.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 15.0, "receptions": 9.0, "receiving_yards": 178.0, "receiving_tds": 1.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 2.0, "receiving_first_downs": 5.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 7.6, "ppg": 4.33, "ypc": 6.7, "ypt": 11.9, "ypr": 19.8, "catch_pct": 60.0, "total_yd": 198.0, "ypg": 28.3, "touches": 12.0, "first_downs": 7.0, "xfp": 27.3, "xfp_diff": 3.0, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 38.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "12485", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:31.727839+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Johnson's 2025 output was much stronger than his current projection. He ranked WR77 in PPG, scored five receiving touchdowns, added rushing work, and beat xFP by 7.8 points. Projection WR121 is a role warning, because Tampa Bay lists him fifth and expects only 6.7 catches. The Buccaneers' 13th-ranked implied total and high Week 1 game total keep explosive depth receivers alive, but the route path is narrow. His old touchdown rate and gadget usage are interesting. The current depth chart says he needs injuries or a package role.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-20T03:01:08.390916+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Tez Johnson (groin) participating at practice Tuesday — The young wideout was able to participate in Tuesday's practice after missing some time due to a groin injury that he suffered earlier this month. He will play a bigger role for the Buccaneers if Emeka Egbuka (toe) or Jalen McMillan (knee) have to miss any time due to their injuries.", "latest_at": "2026-08-25T15:39:51+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-30T10:00:03.528148+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 1, "llm_weeks_out": 0.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "participating at practice; groin injury; play a bigger role; miss any time; young wideout", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 1, "llm_team_context": 1, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-02T10:20:06.830240+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": null, "as_of": "2026-08-24", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```