# Mitchell Evans — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12473 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/12473", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:25:11.077120+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "12473", "name": "Mitchell Evans", "team": "CAR", "pos": "TE", "age": 23, "exp": 1, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 1.31, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 1.3104444444444445, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 17, "adp": 386.3, "adp_pr": 64, "ly": { "pts": 38.7, "g": 14, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": 1.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 25.0, "receptions": 19.0, "receiving_yards": 171.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 1.0, "receiving_first_downs": 9.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 6.2, "ppg": 2.76, "ypc": 1.0, "ypt": 6.8, "ypr": 9.0, "catch_pct": 76.0, "total_yd": 172.0, "ypg": 12.3, "touches": 20.0, "first_downs": 10.0, "xfp": 35.6, "xfp_diff": 3.1, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 37.4, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 4.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 17.8, "g": 7, "through_week": 8, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 1.0, "rushing_yards": 1.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 12.0, "receptions": 10.0, "receiving_yards": 127.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 1.0, "receiving_first_downs": 4.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 4.9, "ppg": 2.54, "ypc": 1.0, "ypt": 10.6, "ypr": 12.7, "catch_pct": 83.3, "total_yd": 128.0, "ypg": 18.3, "touches": 11.0, "first_downs": 5.0, "xfp": 16.2, "xfp_diff": 1.6, "xfp_through_week": 8, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 46.0, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 1.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 8.3 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "12473", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:25:11.081455+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "unavailable", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Carolina has Evans listed third at tight end behind Tommy Tremble, and his rookie usage matched the slot: 25 targets, a 5.2 percent target share, 37 percent of snaps. He caught 19 balls for 171 yards and two scores, ran slightly ahead of his expected points, and never posted a week above 9.8. For 2026 the projection sits at 30 points, 64th at the position, and the market takes him at 389 as the TE55, so price and forecast agree this is a stash valuation. The offense drags on everyone here too, with Panthers implied totals ranking 24th. A second-year jump at age 23 is a live possibility if the depth chart shuffles, and nothing in the numbers yet argues you need to be early to it.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Mitchell Evans catches pass in Week 1 — Evans saw minimal involvement in the Carolina passing attack, with quarterback Bryce Young spreading the ball around to seven different pass-catchers. The tight end can be left off rosters in all formats ahead of a Week 2 contest against the Atlanta Falcons.", "latest_at": "2026-09-14T14:19:18+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-15T10:00:03.130918+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "minimal involvement; left off rosters; spreading the ball; week 2 contest", "llm_role_change": -1, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-09-15T10:18:44.926460+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": null } } ```