{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11625","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:17:10.708267+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11625","name":"Adonai Mitchell","team":"NYJ","pos":"WR","age":24,"exp":2,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":3.67,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":3.6703333333333337,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":95,"adp":227.4,"adp_pr":79,"ly":{"pts":71.4,"g":16,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":1.0,"rushing_yards":-4.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":74.0,"receptions":33.0,"receiving_yards":453.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":16.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":15.0,"ppg":4.46,"ypc":-4.0,"ypt":6.1,"ypr":13.7,"catch_pct":44.6,"total_yd":449.0,"ypg":28.1,"touches":34.0,"first_downs":16.0,"xfp":112.4,"xfp_diff":-39.0,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":50.6,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.71,"rec_avg_cushion":5.81,"rec_adot":14.82,"rec_air_share":25.53,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.88,"rec_catch_pct":44.59,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":2.7},"ytd":{"pts":16.8,"g":3,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":18.0,"receptions":9.0,"receiving_yards":123.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":7.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":20.5,"ppg":5.6,"ypc":null,"ypt":6.8,"ypr":13.7,"catch_pct":50.0,"total_yd":123.0,"ypg":41.0,"touches":9.0,"first_downs":7.0,"xfp":25.9,"xfp_diff":-9.1,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":65.0,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":2.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":11.1}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11625","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:17:10.727531+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"The gap between Mitchell's opportunity and his production last year was among the widest at the position. His routes earned 112.4 expected half-PPR points and he scored 71.4, a 41-point shortfall that ranked fourth-worst of the receivers we track. Normally a gap like that is a buy signal, since players tend to drift back toward their usage. His case is more complicated because the cause shows up plainly in the charting: a 44.6 percent catch rate, second-lowest among qualified wide receivers, attached to a 14.8-yard aDOT in the 96th percentile. Indianapolis threw him low-percentage deep balls and he converted almost none of them, managing just 6.1 yards per target on a genuinely downfield route tree. When the ball did arrive he created something, posting 75th-percentile YAC over expected. He now joins a Jets offense priced at an 18.9-point implied total, 30th in the league, and drafters take him around WR66 in the 14th round against a WR71 projection. The rebound math is real, but it asks you to believe the catch rate was a quarterback problem rather than a Mitchell problem, and nothing about the new situation settles that question in his favor.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Adonai Mitchell (finger) out for Week 5 — Mitchell will miss a third straight game due to his finger injury. Sterling Shepard should continue to see increased playing time in Mitchell's stead. Tim Patrick (groin) may also see action for the first time this season. ","latest_at":"2026-10-09T14:53:41+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-09T19:00:23.252053+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":2,"llm_weeks_out":1.0,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"out for week 5; miss a third straight game; finger injury; increased playing time; tim patrick may also see action","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":-1,"llm_team_context":-1,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-09T19:12:04.583326+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":2.9285267700496256,"as_of":"2026-10-14","source":"curves-v1"}}}