{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11604","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:56.494619+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11604","name":"Brock Bowers","team":"LV","pos":"TE","age":23,"exp":2,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":69.2,"ros_ppg":14.35,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":14.347666666666665,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":195,"adp":22.0,"adp_pr":1,"ly":{"pts":142.2,"g":12,"through_week":16,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":2.0,"rushing_yards":2.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":86.0,"receptions":64.0,"receiving_yards":680.0,"receiving_tds":7.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":36.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":23.6,"ppg":11.85,"ypc":1.0,"ypt":7.9,"ypr":10.6,"catch_pct":74.4,"total_yd":682.0,"ypg":56.8,"touches":66.0,"first_downs":36.0,"xfp":123.2,"xfp_diff":19.0,"xfp_through_week":16,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":85.9,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.92,"rec_avg_cushion":6.16,"rec_adot":7.07,"rec_air_share":18.62,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.97,"rec_catch_pct":74.42,"rec_drops":4.0,"rec_broken_tackles":3.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.7},"ytd":{"pts":78.5,"g":5,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":51.0,"receptions":34.0,"receiving_yards":455.0,"receiving_tds":3.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":23.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":26.0,"ppg":15.7,"ypc":null,"ypt":8.9,"ypr":13.4,"catch_pct":66.7,"total_yd":455.0,"ypg":91.0,"touches":34.0,"first_downs":23.0,"xfp":73.7,"xfp_diff":6.8,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":82.6,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":2.34,"rec_avg_cushion":5.74,"rec_adot":10.51,"rec_air_share":25.7,"rec_yac_above_exp":0.73,"rec_catch_pct":65.38,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":2.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11604","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:56.516183+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"The market has settled on Bowers as the TE2, a second-round price around pick 20, and the 2025 charting explains why the faith survived a 12-game season. His 11.8 points a game ranked fourth at the position, his 18.5 percent air-yards share landed in the 94th percentile among tight ends, and he added 0.95 yards after catch over expected per reception (83rd percentile), all while sitting in the 17th percentile for average separation. Even with defenders playing off him at the snap, an 89th-percentile average cushion, his separation at the catch point stayed among the position's lowest, so he was winning contested and then creating once the ball arrived, which is how the great ones hold volume when defenses know it's coming. The concern lives in the environment, since Vegas has the Raiders 28th by implied team total at 19.2 points a game, and he beat his expected points by 19 last year, so an honest forecast bakes in some efficiency pullback. Consensus still projects 195 points and TE2, meaning the price is roughly right if you believe target dominance travels through a bad offense, and his own usage inside that same bad offense suggests it can.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Brock Bowers (knee) limited at practice Wednesday — Bowers was a limited participant at practice on Wednesday. This is likely just a load management move on the part of the team early on in the practice week, so fantasy managers should have no concerns about his outlook for Week 5 unless he's downgraded at some point this week.","latest_at":"2026-10-07T21:50:54+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-08T19:00:31.542595+00:00","llm_sentiment":0,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"limited participant; load management move; no concerns; outlook for week 5; downgraded","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-08T19:22:30.289955+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":1.6780349575271793,"as_of":"2026-10-08","source":"curves-v1"}}}