# Ray Davis — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11575 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11575", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:30.837775+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "11575", "name": "Ray Davis", "team": "BUF", "pos": "RB", "age": 26, "exp": 2, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 0.0, "ros_ppg": 0.91, "games_left": 10, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 0.9136000000000001, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 10 }, "proj": 32, "adp": 208.8, "adp_pr": 60, "ly": { "pts": 53.1, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 58.0, "rushing_yards": 275.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 13.0, "receptions": 10.0, "receiving_yards": 86.0, "receiving_tds": 2.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 15.0, "receiving_first_downs": 7.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 2.7, "ppg": 3.12, "ypc": 4.7, "ypt": 6.6, "ypr": 8.6, "catch_pct": 76.9, "total_yd": 361.0, "ypg": 21.2, "touches": 68.0, "first_downs": 22.0, "xfp": 53.3, "xfp_diff": -0.2, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 14.3, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 2.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": 2.5, "rush_yac_att": 2.24, "rush_broken_tackles": 3.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 15.4 }, "ytd": { "pts": 6.7, "g": 5, "through_week": 6, "passing_yards": 0.0, "passing_tds": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "carries": 5.0, "rushing_yards": 12.0, "rushing_tds": 0.0, "targets": 3.0, "receptions": 3.0, "receiving_yards": 40.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 0.0, "rushing_first_downs": 1.0, "receiving_first_downs": 1.0, "fumbles_lost": 0.0, "tgt_share": 2.2, "ppg": 1.34, "ypc": 2.4, "ypt": 13.3, "ypr": 13.3, "catch_pct": 100.0, "total_yd": 52.0, "ypg": 10.4, "touches": 8.0, "first_downs": 2.0, "xfp": 5.6, "xfp_diff": 1.1, "xfp_through_week": 6, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 11.2, "pass_time_to_throw": null, "pass_adot": null, "pass_aggressiveness": null, "pass_cpoe": null, "pass_air_to_sticks": null, "pass_rating": null, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 1.0, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": null, "pass_bad_throw_pct": null, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "11575", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:30.841365+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Buffalo's offense carries most of Davis's appeal, with Vegas ranking the Bills fifth by implied team totals at 25.6 points a game, the kind of place where any back who inherits real carries matters instantly. Davis himself has given drafters little to hold: 3.1 points a game in 2025, a weekly median of 0.6, a 14.3 percent snap share, and a week 18 eruption of 24.4 points that supplied a huge slice of the season total. In small doses the efficiency was fine, 4.7 yards a carry with 2.24 after contact in the 78th percentile, so the ability to run when called on is documented. The consensus projection of 32.3 points at RB82 sits sixteen spots below his RB66 standard price, which tells you the market is buying insurance rather than production. Reasonable enough in deep leagues, less so in shallow ones. What a handcuff in a top-five scoring environment runs on is the starter's fragility rather than the backup's stat line, and if that day comes, none of Davis's 2025 numbers will matter next to the opportunity in front of him.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Ray Davis (hamstring) logs full practice Thursday. — Davis was able to log a full practice session to start the week on Thursday. He played through this hamstring injury in Week 4, and it looks like it's not an issue for him at all anymore. He should play and be a full go in Week 5, though he will continue to be relegated to a depth role in this backfield.", "latest_at": "2026-10-09T01:57:09+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-09T09:00:23.363460+00:00", "llm_sentiment": 0, "llm_injury_trajectory": 1, "llm_severity": 2, "llm_weeks_out": 0.0, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "logs full practice; not an issue; full go week 5; relegated to depth role; hamstring", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": -1, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-09T09:25:48.672707+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "absent", "exp_miss_next6": 3.697937500856865, "as_of": "2026-10-05", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```