# Bo Nix — FootballQuants player source Canonical source: https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11563 Use the season, week, scoring, freshness and limitations below when citing this source. Model estimates are not observed outcomes. ```json { "schema_version": "public-sources.v1", "canonical_url": "https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11563", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T02:24:31.544784+00:00", "season": 2026, "week": 8, "last_season": 2025, "fmt": "half", "teams": 12, "qb": 1, "mode": "inseason", "data_version": "board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8", "model_version": "trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00", "freshness": { "status": "partial", "expected_season": 2026, "served_season": 2026, "expected_week": 8, "warnings": [], "sources": { "outcomes": { "status": "ready", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "completed_through_week": 7 }, "season_projection": { "status": "preseason_prior", "captured_at": null }, "draft_adp": { "status": "preseason_context", "captured_at": null }, "advanced_stats": { "status": "coverage_not_verified", "captured_at": null } }, "note": "Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt." }, "outcome_readiness": { "completed_week": 7, "fresh": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00", "status": "ready" }, "valuation_context": { "phase": "sleeper_future_with_model_fallback", "fallback_phase": "in_season_blend", "fallback_outcomes_through_week": 7, "fallback_weekly_projection_eligible": true, "advanced_stats_priced": false, "injury_outlook": "annotation_only", "remaining_games_policy": "exclude_started_games" }, "value_locked": null, "ytd_through_week": 8, "ytd_complete_through_week": 7, "sources": [ { "name": "FootballQuants public Player Research board", "url": "https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board" } ], "limitations": [ "Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.", "generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.", "Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.", "Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.", "League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring." ], "metric_definitions": { "proj": "Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.", "adp": "Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.", "ytd.ppg": "Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.", "tgt_share": "Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.", "ros_ppg": "Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.", "projection": "Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.", "value": "Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.", "xfp": "Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.", "xfp_diff": "Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression." }, "access": { "public": true, "pro_url": "https://footballquants.com/app", "connect_url": "https://footballquants.com/connect" }, "player": { "sleeper_id": "11563", "name": "Bo Nix", "team": "DEN", "pos": "QB", "age": 26, "exp": 2, "injury": null, "rookie": false, "value": 15.2, "ros_ppg": 15.9, "games_left": 9, "projection": { "ros_ppg": 15.896533333333334, "source": "sleeper_future", "captured_at": "2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00", "covered_weeks": [ 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 ], "missing_weeks": [], "remaining_games": 9 }, "proj": 287, "adp": 116.6, "adp_pr": 14, "ly": { "pts": 296.8, "g": 17, "through_week": 18, "passing_yards": 3931.0, "passing_tds": 25.0, "interceptions": 11.0, "carries": 83.0, "rushing_yards": 356.0, "rushing_tds": 5.0, "targets": 1.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 196.0, "rushing_first_downs": 27.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 2.0, "tgt_share": 0.2, "ppg": 17.46, "ypc": 4.3, "ypt": 0.0, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": 0.0, "total_yd": 4287.0, "ypg": 252.2, "touches": 83.0, "first_downs": 27.0, "xfp": 40.8, "xfp_diff": null, "xfp_through_week": 18, "xfp_coverage": "partial" }, "adv": { "snap_pct": 99.6, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.86, "pass_adot": 7.51, "pass_aggressiveness": 11.11, "pass_cpoe": -2.02, "pass_air_to_sticks": -1.41, "pass_rating": 87.81, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": 0.0, "rec_broken_tackles": 0.0, "rush_ybc_att": 3.36, "rush_yac_att": 0.69, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 19.5, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 16.4, "rec_drop_pct": 0.0 }, "ytd": { "pts": 91.8, "g": 7, "through_week": 7, "passing_yards": 1271.0, "passing_tds": 7.0, "interceptions": 3.0, "carries": 29.0, "rushing_yards": 110.0, "rushing_tds": 2.0, "targets": 0.0, "receptions": 0.0, "receiving_yards": 0.0, "receiving_tds": 0.0, "passing_first_downs": 58.0, "rushing_first_downs": 9.0, "receiving_first_downs": 0.0, "fumbles_lost": 2.0, "tgt_share": 0.0, "ppg": 13.11, "ypc": 3.8, "ypt": null, "ypr": null, "catch_pct": null, "total_yd": 1381.0, "ypg": 197.3, "touches": 29.0, "first_downs": 9.0, "xfp": 18.5, "xfp_diff": 4.5, "xfp_through_week": 7, "xfp_coverage": "complete" }, "adv_ytd": { "snap_pct": 99.7, "pass_time_to_throw": 2.96, "pass_adot": 6.41, "pass_aggressiveness": 11.47, "pass_cpoe": -4.12, "pass_air_to_sticks": -2.74, "pass_rating": 80.66, "rush_stacked_box_pct": null, "rush_time_to_los": null, "rush_ryoe_per_att": null, "rush_efficiency": null, "rush_pct_over_expected": null, "rec_avg_separation": null, "rec_avg_cushion": null, "rec_adot": null, "rec_air_share": null, "rec_yac_above_exp": null, "rec_catch_pct": null, "rec_drops": null, "rec_broken_tackles": null, "rush_ybc_att": null, "rush_yac_att": null, "rush_broken_tackles": 0.0, "pass_pressured_pct": 22.3, "pass_bad_throw_pct": 17.2, "rec_drop_pct": null } }, "profile": { "sleeper_id": "11563", "season": 2026, "as_of": "2026-11-01T02:24:31.547664+00:00", "freshness": { "writeup": "preseason_context", "news": "stale", "news_inference": "current", "injury_outlook": "stale", "note": "Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report." }, "writeup": "Denver never took Nix off the field last season, a position-leading 99.6 percent snap share across all 17 games, and the resulting volume carried him to a top-ten points finish at 18.1 a game. The style of that production is the concern, since his aggressiveness rate ranked second-to-last, his aDOT sat in the 28th percentile, and his passer rating landed in the bottom quarter, a checkdown-heavy operation that needs a strong team scoring environment to pay off. Early Vegas lines point the wrong way on that, with Denver 25th in average implied team total and a Week 1 trip to Kansas City carrying a 20-point implied figure. His median week of 16.2 also ran well below the 18.1 average, so the typical outing was more modest than the season line. The ankle appears minor, with June reports showing full 7-on-7 work and a full-go expectation for camp. At pick 114 as QB14 he matches his QB14 consensus projection exactly, so the market carries no argument either way, and drafters taking him are buying games played and a locked starting job with little in the charting to suggest upside beyond that.", "writeup_generated_at": "2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00", "news": { "digest": "Bo Nix struggles in Week 4 loss to 49ers — Nix couldn't carry over his three-touchdown performance from Week 3. The Broncos struggled to get much going offensively, and Nix needed 42 attempts to get to 214 passing yards. The good news is he didn't turn the ball over and added 10 yards on the ground. Nix gets a better matchup against the winless Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5, but he remains more of a QB2 with streaming upside for fantasy managers.", "latest_at": "2026-10-05T18:25:34+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-06T09:00:15.551468+00:00", "llm_sentiment": -1, "llm_injury_trajectory": 0, "llm_severity": 0, "llm_weeks_out": null, "llm_offfield_risk": 0, "llm_key_phrases": "struggles in week 4; couldn't carry over; 42 attempts; no turnovers; qb2 streaming upside", "llm_role_change": 0, "llm_usage_outlook": 0, "llm_team_context": 0, "llm_relevance": 0.9, "llm_inferred_at": "2026-10-06T09:01:35.035727+00:00", "llm_model": "gpt-oss-120b", "inference_status": "current" }, "injury_outlook": null, "injury_outlook_last_captured": { "status": "questionable", "exp_miss_next6": null, "as_of": "2026-07-18", "source": "curves-v1" } } } ```