{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11560","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:18:56.661713+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11560","name":"Caleb Williams","team":"CHI","pos":"QB","age":24,"exp":2,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":37.0,"ros_ppg":18.32,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":18.323911111111116,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":9},"proj":292,"adp":74.9,"adp_pr":7,"ly":{"pts":315.2,"g":17,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":3942.0,"passing_tds":27.0,"interceptions":7.0,"carries":77.0,"rushing_yards":383.0,"rushing_tds":3.0,"targets":2.0,"receptions":2.0,"receiving_yards":22.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":187.0,"rushing_first_downs":33.0,"receiving_first_downs":2.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":0.4,"ppg":18.54,"ypc":5.0,"ypt":11.0,"ypr":11.0,"catch_pct":100.0,"total_yd":4347.0,"ypg":255.7,"touches":79.0,"first_downs":35.0,"xfp":48.3,"xfp_diff":17.2,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":99.1,"pass_time_to_throw":3.2,"pass_adot":8.45,"pass_aggressiveness":11.27,"pass_cpoe":-6.67,"pass_air_to_sticks":-0.49,"pass_rating":90.13,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":4.13,"rush_yac_att":1.02,"rush_broken_tackles":5.0,"pass_pressured_pct":24.3,"pass_bad_throw_pct":19.4,"rec_drop_pct":0.0},"ytd":{"pts":83.6,"g":4,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":1020.0,"passing_tds":5.0,"interceptions":1.0,"carries":24.0,"rushing_yards":128.0,"rushing_tds":2.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":43.0,"rushing_first_downs":9.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":20.9,"ypc":5.3,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":1148.0,"ypg":287.0,"touches":24.0,"first_downs":9.0,"xfp":15.9,"xfp_diff":8.9,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":96.5,"pass_time_to_throw":3.22,"pass_adot":6.22,"pass_aggressiveness":9.68,"pass_cpoe":5.82,"pass_air_to_sticks":-3.56,"pass_rating":105.58,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":1.0,"pass_pressured_pct":26.6,"pass_bad_throw_pct":12.6,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11560","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:18:56.684708+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Chicago got a top-five points season from Williams while he charted near the bottom of the position in nearly every passing-quality measure. His CPOE ranked last among qualifiers at minus 6.9, his aggressiveness rate also ranked last, his time to throw was the second-longest, and his bad-throw rate sat in the worst fifth. The points arrived anyway, on 3,942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 383 rushing yards, a 99 percent snap share across all 17 games, plus a receiving touchdown for garnish. Durability and volume propping up shaky underlying play can absolutely continue, and the Bears rank a healthy eighth in early implied team totals, so the environment is not the problem. The price splits sharply by format, and that is where judgment comes in: single-QB drafters take him in the eighth round around QB8, already ahead of his QB13 consensus projection, while 2QB rooms push him all the way to QB6, a two-round leap of faith the 2025 charting does nothing to justify.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Caleb Williams (hamstring) officially questionable for Sunday — In a surprising move, Williams is officially considered questionable to play on Sunday. It was previously reported that Tyson Bagent is going to start for the Bears in Week 5, but now that is a little uncertain at this point. Fantasy managers should keep close tabs on any updates about this situation heading into the weekend.","latest_at":"2026-10-09T19:29:05+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-11T09:00:23.208085+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":-1,"llm_severity":1,"llm_weeks_out":0.5,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"hamstring questionable; officially questionable; tyson bagent uncertain; keep close tabs; week 5","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-11T09:15:31.147686+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"questionable","exp_miss_next6":2.9285267700496256,"as_of":"2026-10-14","source":"curves-v1"}}}