{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11199","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:19:11.755102+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11199","name":"Emari Demercado","team":"HOU","pos":"RB","age":27,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":3.2,"games_left":9,"projection":{"ros_ppg":3.199174391266252,"source":"fallback","captured_at":null,"covered_weeks":[],"missing_weeks":[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"remaining_games":9},"proj":25,"adp":678.5,"adp_pr":273,"ly":{"pts":51.8,"g":12,"through_week":18,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":44.0,"rushing_yards":312.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":20.0,"receptions":13.0,"receiving_yards":101.0,"receiving_tds":1.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":10.0,"receiving_first_downs":3.0,"fumbles_lost":1.0,"tgt_share":4.6,"ppg":4.32,"ypc":7.1,"ypt":5.0,"ypr":7.8,"catch_pct":65.0,"total_yd":413.0,"ypg":34.4,"touches":57.0,"first_downs":13.0,"xfp":49.8,"xfp_diff":4.0,"xfp_through_week":18,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":23.2,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":2.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":4.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":5.0},"ytd":{"pts":1.5,"g":2,"through_week":2,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":5.0,"rushing_yards":15.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":0.0,"receptions":0.0,"receiving_yards":0.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":0.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":0.0,"ppg":0.75,"ypc":3.0,"ypt":null,"ypr":null,"catch_pct":null,"total_yd":15.0,"ypg":7.5,"touches":5.0,"first_downs":0.0,"xfp":2.8,"xfp_diff":-1.3,"xfp_through_week":2,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":12.5,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":null,"rec_broken_tackles":null,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":0.0,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":null}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11199","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:19:11.782341+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"current","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Kansas City signed Demercado away from Arizona, and he lands second on the Chiefs' running back depth chart, which is why his consensus projection of 74 half-PPR points at RB58 sits 26 spots ahead of his half-PPR ADP of 288. That inversion is rare in the deep rounds, where the market usually pays above projection for familiar names. His 2025 was steady rotational work, 57 touches and 51.8 points on 49.8 expected, and with 20 targets last season he has shown enough hands to hold passing downs. At 27 he brings no upside story, and the projection assumes only about 77 carries, so this is a bet on role security inside a top-ten offense by implied totals rather than on talent breaking out. For the final pick of a bench, a Chiefs back the projections already rank RB58 is about as sturdy as free gets.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-22T02:44:42.345573+00:00","news":{"digest":"Emari Demercado expected to re-sign with Cowboys  — Demercado had been competing with Tyler Goodson for the backup role. He will remain off the fantasy radar. ","latest_at":"2026-10-13T18:41:53+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-14T09:00:25.040518+00:00","llm_sentiment":-1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"expected to re-sign; competing with tyler; backup role; off the fantasy radar","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":0,"llm_team_context":0,"llm_relevance":0.1,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-14T09:10:23.412861+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.563580908816535,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"},"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":4.563580908816535,"as_of":"2026-10-31","source":"curves-v1"}}}