{"schema_version":"public-sources.v1","canonical_url":"https://footballquants.com/sources/players/11068","retrieved_at":"2026-11-01T02:28:34.966559+00:00","season":2026,"week":8,"last_season":2025,"fmt":"half","teams":12,"qb":1,"mode":"inseason","data_version":"board:v4:fp:1788548817:m:1788548832:r:1788548848:s:27180:12104087.300:weekly:2026-10-31 23:35:25.223816+00:00:xfp:2026-10-31 23:04:30.678931+00:00:registry:2026-10-31 23:03:48.108384+00:00:kickoff:2026-10-30 00:15:00+00:00:expired:False:fp:1788548817:r:1788548848:weekly:2026-10-31 23:33:41.151983+00:00:completed:7:outcomes:ready:schedule:8","model_version":"trade-value-sleeper-ros-v1","generated_at":"2026-11-01T00:32:50.841496+00:00","freshness":{"status":"partial","expected_season":2026,"served_season":2026,"expected_week":8,"warnings":[],"sources":{"outcomes":{"status":"ready","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","completed_through_week":7},"season_projection":{"status":"preseason_prior","captured_at":null},"draft_adp":{"status":"preseason_context","captured_at":null},"advanced_stats":{"status":"coverage_not_verified","captured_at":null}},"note":"Generation time is not source freshness. Individual future-projection capture dates and coverage are provided per player; not every input has an independent capture receipt."},"outcome_readiness":{"completed_week":7,"fresh":true,"checked_at":"2026-10-31T23:03:40.760224+00:00","status":"ready"},"valuation_context":{"phase":"sleeper_future_with_model_fallback","fallback_phase":"in_season_blend","fallback_outcomes_through_week":7,"fallback_weekly_projection_eligible":true,"advanced_stats_priced":false,"injury_outlook":"annotation_only","remaining_games_policy":"exclude_started_games"},"value_locked":null,"ytd_through_week":8,"ytd_complete_through_week":7,"sources":[{"name":"FootballQuants public Player Research board","url":"https://footballquants.com/api/v1/players/board"}],"limitations":["Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes. An unavailable value is null, never zero.","generated_at describes model generation; retrieved_at describes this response, not a source update.","Season projections are full-season estimates, not this week's points. ADP describes draft markets, not a weekly ranking.","Half-PPR trade values are public. Standard and PPR trade values require an eligible paid account and are omitted here.","League-family estimates use the stated scoring format, team count and quarterback slots; they are not custom league scoring."],"metric_definitions":{"proj":"Full-season preseason projected fantasy points in the selected format; not points remaining or this week's forecast.","adp":"Stored average draft position; historical draft-market context, not a current trade price.","ytd.ppg":"Observed fantasy points per game in the selected format. Read ytd.g and the observed/completed weeks; partial weeks can make totals uneven.","tgt_share":"Share of team targets in the player's observed games, matched by season, week and team, including recorded zero-target appearances. Byes and missing appearances do not count as zero games.","ros_ppg":"Estimated points per unstarted game through Week 17 in the selected format. Uses captured Sleeper future stat lines where present and a model fallback where absent. Not a weekly start/sit recommendation.","projection":"Future-source provenance: source, captured_at, covered_weeks, missing_weeks and remaining_games. Missing weeks use fallback; null remaining_games means the schedule is not verified.","value":"Rest-of-season value above positional replacement in model comparison units, not projected fantasy points or trade acceptance probability.","xfp":"Expected rushing and receiving half-PPR points from observed opportunity. Excludes passing, fumbles and scoring bonuses regardless of selected scoring.","xfp_diff":"Observed rushing/receiving half-PPR points minus xFP for matching covered weeks. Unavailable when opportunity and production coverage differ; not proof of future regression."},"access":{"public":true,"pro_url":"https://footballquants.com/app","connect_url":"https://footballquants.com/connect"},"player":{"sleeper_id":"11068","name":"Mitch Tinsley","team":"CIN","pos":"WR","age":27,"exp":3,"injury":null,"rookie":false,"value":0.0,"ros_ppg":1.01,"games_left":10,"projection":{"ros_ppg":1.01,"source":"sleeper_future","captured_at":"2026-10-31T23:31:38.044520+00:00","covered_weeks":[8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"missing_weeks":[],"remaining_games":10},"proj":null,"adp":607.9,"adp_pr":271,"ly":{"pts":27.6,"g":8,"through_week":16,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":24.0,"receptions":8.0,"receiving_yards":116.0,"receiving_tds":2.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":6.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":8.5,"ppg":3.45,"ypc":null,"ypt":4.8,"ypr":14.5,"catch_pct":33.3,"total_yd":116.0,"ypg":14.5,"touches":8.0,"first_downs":6.0,"xfp":40.5,"xfp_diff":-12.9,"xfp_through_week":16,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv":{"snap_pct":24.6,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":1.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":4.2},"ytd":{"pts":7.6,"g":2,"through_week":7,"passing_yards":0.0,"passing_tds":0.0,"interceptions":0.0,"carries":0.0,"rushing_yards":0.0,"rushing_tds":0.0,"targets":8.0,"receptions":4.0,"receiving_yards":56.0,"receiving_tds":0.0,"passing_first_downs":0.0,"rushing_first_downs":0.0,"receiving_first_downs":3.0,"fumbles_lost":0.0,"tgt_share":9.9,"ppg":3.8,"ypc":null,"ypt":7.0,"ypr":14.0,"catch_pct":50.0,"total_yd":56.0,"ypg":28.0,"touches":4.0,"first_downs":3.0,"xfp":13.7,"xfp_diff":-6.1,"xfp_through_week":7,"xfp_coverage":"complete"},"adv_ytd":{"snap_pct":35.7,"pass_time_to_throw":null,"pass_adot":null,"pass_aggressiveness":null,"pass_cpoe":null,"pass_air_to_sticks":null,"pass_rating":null,"rush_stacked_box_pct":null,"rush_time_to_los":null,"rush_ryoe_per_att":null,"rush_efficiency":null,"rush_pct_over_expected":null,"rec_avg_separation":null,"rec_avg_cushion":null,"rec_adot":null,"rec_air_share":null,"rec_yac_above_exp":null,"rec_catch_pct":null,"rec_drops":0.0,"rec_broken_tackles":0.0,"rush_ybc_att":null,"rush_yac_att":null,"rush_broken_tackles":null,"pass_pressured_pct":null,"pass_bad_throw_pct":null,"rec_drop_pct":0.0}},"profile":{"sleeper_id":"11068","season":2026,"as_of":"2026-11-01T02:28:34.969139+00:00","freshness":{"writeup":"preseason_context","news":"stale","news_inference":"current","injury_outlook":"stale","note":"Preseason reads are historical context. News dates describe the latest captured story, not a verified current availability report."},"writeup":"Tinsley sits in the right offense and the wrong role. Cincinnati ranks fifth in implied points and opens with 27.0, but he is fifth on the depth chart and projects WR123. Last year he saw 24 targets in eight games, caught only eight, and finished 12.9 points below xFP despite two touchdowns. That mix says opportunity was limited and conversion was shaky. The Bengals can create spike weeks for depth receivers, yet he needs a major camp climb first. The team total is appealing, while the player-level profile is thin.","writeup_generated_at":"2026-07-20T03:01:08.390916+00:00","news":{"digest":"Mitch Tinsley solid in loss Sunday — Tinsley was able to step up and make a few big plays for the Bengals on Sunday, finishing with 49 yards after signing with Cincinnati less than a week ago. He will likely continue to be a solid contributor for the team next week, with one or both of Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) likely to be sidelined against the Dolphins.","latest_at":"2026-10-05T12:55:14+00:00","updated_at":"2026-10-05T19:00:23.191548+00:00","llm_sentiment":1,"llm_injury_trajectory":0,"llm_severity":0,"llm_weeks_out":null,"llm_offfield_risk":0,"llm_key_phrases":"solid contributor; 49 yards; likely continue; chase concussion; tee higgins adductor","llm_role_change":0,"llm_usage_outlook":1,"llm_team_context":1,"llm_relevance":0.9,"llm_inferred_at":"2026-10-05T19:00:24.727669+00:00","llm_model":"gpt-oss-120b","inference_status":"current"},"injury_outlook":null,"injury_outlook_last_captured":{"status":"absent","exp_miss_next6":3.697937500856865,"as_of":"2026-10-14","source":"curves-v1"}}}